Business performance in Bali Province in the fourth quarter of 2025 slowed compared to the previous quarter. This is reflected in the results of Bank Indonesia’s Business Activity Survey, which recorded a Weighted Net Balance of 35.46%, down from 53.17% in the third quarter of 2025.
The slowdown was mainly triggered by weakening in the tourism sector. The accommodation and food services sector contracted from 19.12% to -0.67%, while the transportation and warehousing sector fell from 0.55% to -0.92%. Bank Indonesia assessed that extreme weather conditions were the main factor behind this decline in performance.
“This decline was influenced by unpredictable weather conditions in Bali during the fourth quarter of 2025 and fairly high rainfall. The increase in rainfall is consistent with data from the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), which showed a 20% quarter-to-quarter increase in the frequency of extreme heavy rain events,” explained Erwin Soeriadimadja, Head of Bank Indonesia’s Bali Representative Office, Tuesday (January 27, 2026).
Agricultural Sector Strengthens
The impact of declining business performance was also seen in tourist arrivals. Data from I Gusti Ngurah Rai Airport recorded a 13% drop in domestic and international tourist arrivals, from 3.4 million people in the third quarter of 2025 to 2.9 million people in the fourth quarter of 2025. In addition to tourism, the performance of government administration, defense, and compulsory social security also slowed, from 5.55% to 4.16%.
This decline was in line with tighter spending and shifts in policy priorities, which affected the absorption of government budgets at the end of the year. The performance of the government administration, defense, and compulsory social security sector fell from 5.55% to 4.16%.
Nevertheless, Bali’s economic slowdown was cushioned by growth in the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector. This sector showed a significant increase from 9.07% in the third quarter of 2025 to 12.34% in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The improvement in agricultural performance was driven by greater water availability during the rainy season and the harvest of the second rice planting season (gadu harvest) in October–November 2025. This condition provided optimism for business players amid pressure on the tourism sector.
Sources : BisnisBali, SWA
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